Next generation scenarios for informing climate and sustainability transitions – Förderung EU-weit

Expected Outcome: Project results are expected to contribute to some of the following expected outcomes: • Strengthened collaboration and integration across research communities, better capturing interactions and trade-offs between various climate domains as well as between climate and non-climate objectives, such as biodiversity or pollution related. This will support more comprehensive and consistent evaluations, benefiting key global assessments (IPCC, IPBES) and improving their impact on European and global policies (European Green Deal, UNFCCC, CBD); • More relevant, robust and actionable scenarios that inform optimal policy interventions, serving the needs and supporting decision-making of diverse end-users at various spatial scales, from policymakers and planning authorities to businesses and civil society; • More globally representative, diverse, inclusive, transparent, widely accepted and better communicated scenarios that support climate-resilient development pathways and foster global consensus on climate action. Scope: Climate scenarios have been instrumental in shaping global, national, and increasingly local responses to climate change by helping stakeholders make informed decisions. Against the backdrop of rapid environmental shifts, social upheavals, high uncertainties and complexity, scenarios must be advanced to inform low-emission climate-resilient pathways, while also accounting for other critical policy priorities, such as environmental protection. Actions should improve Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) or propose alternative approaches to address key challenges and gaps in current climate scenario frameworks. They should extend the scope of scenarios beyond the 21st century, enlarge the future possibility space with more diverse narratives and drivers (e.g. post-growth), more explicit consideration of equity, justice, geopolitics and attention to inclusivity. Proposals are expected to address only one of the following priority areas, which should be clearly indicated: Area A: Integration of climate impacts and adaptation dimension Develop approaches to better integrate physical climate impacts, adaptation, its costs and limits into mitigation pathways. This includes exploring how climate impacts including extremes and biophysical feedbacks affect mitigation strategies, testing the resilience of low-emission pathways to climate impacts, and how adaptation interacts with mitigation. Area B: Improved scenario frameworks Update baseline scenarios and expand scenario narratives to better address multi-scale, cross-sectoral issues and the needs of downstream assessments. Scenarios should capture a wider range of plausible futures to reflect changing socio-economic and environmental conditions (including a broader range of economic growth assumptions), technological advancements, evolving policy landscape and disruptive events. This includes extension of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenario framework, or development of alternatives, to enhance regional and local applicability, to support adaptation pathway development, and to improve relevance beyond the climate research community - notably for biodiversity and SDGs. Area C: Improved policy representation Enhance the granularity and diversity of policy (both mitigation and adaptation) representation in scenarios with more focus on implementation aspects to bridge the gap between modelled pathways and real-world action. Address social, geopolitical, economic and technological factors, considering interactions between industrial, trade, climate and other environmental policies (e.g. air pollution). Examine implications for competitiveness, employment, investment flows, energy security, supply chain resilience, technological innovation, international spillovers, as well as well-being. Investigate implementation and impact of recent commitments and initiatives (e.g. fossil fuel phase-out, Global Methane Pledge) and the impact of rising geopolitical tensions on their implementation, and mitigation action overall. Actions should promote transdisciplinary collaboration and co-design with stakeholders to integrate diverse perspectives and needs They should develop and test new approaches, including communication, to improve uptake of results by various audiences. The topic therefore requires inclusion of relevant SSH expertise, to produce meaningful and significant effects to enhance the societal impact of related research activities. All projects funded from this topic are strongly encouraged to collaborate and envisage clustering activities together and with other relevant projects in and outside of Horizon Europe. They should contribute to the organisation of the European Climate and Energy Modelling Platform[1] conferences to foster dialogue between scientists, policymakers and other stakeholders. They should also support inclusive and transparent model intercomparison exercises, aligning with the efforts of the European Climate and Energy Modelling Forum[2]. International cooperation is generally encouraged and specifically required with low, and lower/upper-middle-income countries[3] – particularly major GHG emitters[4] such as China (contributing to the EU-China Climate Change and Biodiversity (CCB) flagship initiative[5]), India, Brazil and Indonesia. It should ensure diverse, globally representative scenario space and, where appropriate, foster capacity development. [1] https://www.ecemf.eu/ecemp/european-climate-and-energy-modelling-platform/ [2] https://www.ecemf.eu/ [3] https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lendinggroups; standard Horizon Europe funding rules apply - only participants from some of these countries are automatically eligible for funding [4] https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/report_2024?vis=ghgtot#emissions_table [5] International cooperation with China in research and innovation ">General conditions 1. Admissibility Conditions: Proposal page limit and layout described in Annex A and Annex E of the Horizon Europe Work Programme General Annexes. Proposal page limits and layout: described in Part B of the Application Form available in the Submission System. 2. Eligible Countries described in Annex B of the Work Programme General Annexes. A number of non-EU/non-Associated Countries that are not automatically eligible for funding have made specific provisions for making funding available for their participants in Horizon Europe projects. See the information in the Horizon Europe Programme Guide. 3. Other Eligible Conditions If projects use satellite-based earth observation, positioning, navigation and/or related timing data and services, beneficiaries must make use of Copernicus and/or Galileo/EGNOS (other data and services may additionally be used). The following additional eligibility criteria apply: The consortium must include as beneficiary or associated partner at least three independent legal entities established in three different low or lower/upper-middle-income countries[[https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lendinggroups ; standard Horizon Europe funding rules apply - only participants from some of these countries are automatically eligible for funding]]. The Joint Research Centre (JRC) may participate as member of the consortium selected for funding as a beneficiary with zero funding, or as an associated partner. The JRC will not participate in the preparation and submission of the proposal - see General Annex B. described in Annex B of the Work Programme General Annexes. 4. Financial and operational capacity and exclusion described in Annex C of the Work Programme General Annexes. 5a. Evaluation and award: Award criteria, scoring and thresholds To ensure a balanced portfolio covering different research areas (A, B and C), grants will be awarded to applications not only in order of ranking but also to at least two highest ranked applications in each area, provided that the corresponding applications attain all thresholds. are described in Annex D of the Work Programme General Annexes. 5b. Evaluation and award: Submission and evaluation processes are described in Annex F of the Work Programme General Annexes and the Online Manual. 5c. Evaluation and award: Indicative timeline for evaluation and grant agreement described in Annex F of the Work Programme General Annexes. 6. Legal and financial set-up of the grants Beneficiaries will be subject to the following additional obligations regarding open science practices: Open access to any new modules, models or tools developed from scratch or substantially improved with the use of EU funding under the action must be ensured through documentation, availability of model code and input data developed under the action. Eligible costs will take the form of a lump sum as defined in the Decision of 7 July 2021 authorising the use of lump sum contributions under the Horizon Europe Programme – the Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (2021-2027) – and in actions under the Research and Training Programme of the European Atomic Energy Community (2021-2025) [[This decision is available on the Funding and Tenders Portal, in the reference documents section for Horizon Europe, under ‘Simplified costs decisions’ or through this link: https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/docs/2021-2027/horizon/guidance/ls-decision_he_en.pdf]]. described in Annex G of the Work Programme General Annexes. Specific conditions described in the [specific topic of the Work Programme] Application and evaluation forms and model grant agreement (MGA): Application form templates — the application form specific to this call is available in the Submission System Standard application form (HE RIA, IA) Evaluation form templates — will be used with the necessary adaptations Standard evaluation form (HE RIA, IA)  Guidance HE Programme Guide  Model Grant Agreements (MGA) HE MGA  HE Unit MGA  Lump Sum MGA  Operating Grants MGA  Framework Partnership Agreement FPA  Call-specific instructions  Detailed budget table (HE LS)  Guidance: "Lump sums - what do I need to know?" Additional documents: HE Main Work Programme 2026-2027 – 1. General Introduction HE Main Work Programme 2026-2027 – 8. Climate, Energy and Mobility HE Main Work Programme 2026-2027 – 15. General Annexes HE Programme Guide HE Framework Programme 2021/695 HE Specific Programme Decision 2021/764 EU Financial Regulation 2024/2509 Decision authorising the use of lump sum contributions under the Horizon Europe Programme Rules for Legal Entity Validation, LEAR Appointment and Financial Capacity Assessment EU Grants AGA — Annotated Model Grant Agreement Funding & Tenders Portal Online Manual  Funding & Tenders Portal Terms and Conditions  Funding & Tenders Portal Privacy Statement