Multi-hazard approach and cumulative / cascading impacts – Förderung EU-weit

Expected Outcome: Project results are expected to contribute to some or all of the following expected outcomes: • Integrated single-hazard systems into multi-hazard next generation predictive models to assess cascading effects (e.g., heatwave, floods, droughts, landslides, heavy rain) and interactions across meteorological, geophysical, and technological hazards; • Enhanced hazard forecasting and response through research on model integration and platform interoperability; • Development of holistic risk and resilience metrics to support multi-hazard prevention strategies, encompassing main physical, economic and social effects; • Improvement of analysis models considering evolving vulnerability state, due to cascading and cumulative effects, through numerical simulations and experimental tests, possibly also supported by AI applications; • Collected reliable data (same granularity and format) and ways to share and analyse it. The interoperability of all kinds of systems and information sharing is crucial, based on the need-to-know principle; • Improved knowledge/experience-sharing from past emergencies to cope with future emergencies, also strengthening trans-national knowledge and data exchange among EU countries as well as from early warning to early action; • Improved disaster risk and resilience management due to single/multiple threats through a holistic, systemic and cross-cutting approach, also considering relevant changes such as changing climate, digital transformation, environmental and socio-economic conditions; • Development of holistic Risk and Resilience Metrics to support multi-hazard prevention strategies, encompassing main physical, economic and social effects; • Solutions shall include the analysis of the physical, social and governance systems and take into account the development of an EU comprehensive risks and threats assessment. Scope: Advancing multi-hazard risk assessment and disaster resilience is a necessity. Building on the integrated all-hazard approach, the advancement will be achieved by integrating single-hazard models into next-generation predictive systems capable of analysing cascading and cumulative effects. A key focus should be on early and anticipatory action, improving the understanding of interactions between meteorological, geophysical, and technological hazards, including their compounding impacts on societies, economies, and critical infrastructure. Proposals should aim to develop and validate integrated forecasting models, that enhance the prediction and management of multi-hazard scenarios, supports flexibility and extensibility, and coordination of responses by incorporating real-time data, AI-driven analytics, and remote sensing technologies. These models should facilitate improved hazard forecasting by addressing challenges in platform interoperability and data exchange, ensuring that diverse hazard monitoring systems at local, national, and global levels can effectively communicate and operate in synergy. Efforts should also explore the interoperability of regional and national hazard warning systems, enhancing global forecasting capabilities for hazards such as landslides triggered by extreme weather events, or cumulative damage modelling for earthquakes and their aftershocks. Research should address gaps in loss estimation models by considering the cascading and long-term impacts of disasters on infrastructure, the built environment, supply chains, and diverse needs of communities. Furthermore, proposals should contribute to the development of advanced tools and methodologies to assess the combined effects of multiple hazards on critical infrastructure, ensuring that disaster risk management strategies account for interdependencies across sectors This should include scenario-based stress testing, digital twins for risk modelling, and AI-powered decision-support systems, taking into account existing biases, to enhance resilience planning for lifeline services such as energy, water, transport and telecommunications. A holistic, systemic, and cross-cutting approach should be applied to disaster risk management, taking into consideration climate change trends, environmental degradation, and vulnerabilities such as gender, age, disabilities and others social factors. The topic should lead to the creation of comprehensive Risk and Resilience Metrics, integrating physical, economic, and social dimensions to support decision-makers in designing effective prevention and adaptation strategies. Considering building on and leveraging from existing systems, such as the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS) the Destination Earth Platform or Risk Data Hub, could be beneficial. Projects should conduct a stakeholder or market analysis and a roadmap or plan for uptake of the developed methodologies, findings, and technologies to the industry, the research and innovation community, and/or the relevant authorities. Projects may take into account the assets but also particular challenges faced by the European outermost regions and may include entities from these regions in the consortium’s composition. Projects should contribute to strengthening risk governance at multiple levels by fostering collaboration between scientific communities, policymakers, emergency responders, and infrastructure operators. Efforts should be made in leveraging citizens-generated content in social media and decentralised digital platforms for citizen-driven early warning and situational awareness. Alignment with EU policies, international risk reduction frameworks, and best practices in resilience planning should be ensured, maximizing the applicability and impact of the developed solutions. The Preparedness Union Strategy is a key document in this regard and includes a key action on developing an EU comprehensive risks and threats assessment. Finding synergies with projects from operational grants, such as the Knowledge for Action in Prevention & Preparedness (KAPP)[1], is recommended. Where applicable, proposals should leverage the data and services available through European Research Infrastructures federated under the European Open Science Cloud, as well as data from relevant Data Spaces. Particular efforts should be made to ensure that the data produced in the context of this topic is FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Re-usable). Technology Readiness Level - Technology readiness level expected from completed projects Activities are expected to achieve TRL 6 by the end of the project – see General Annex B. [1] Knowledge for Action in Prevention and Preparedness (KAPP) - European Commission - https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/funding-evaluations/financing-civil-protection/cp-calls-proposals/knowledge-action-prevention-and-preparedness-kapp-0_en ">General conditions 1. Admissibility Conditions: Proposal page limit and layout described in Annex A and Annex E of the Horizon Europe Work Programme General Annexes. Proposal page limits and layout: described in Part B of the Application Form available in the Submission System. 2. Eligible Countries described in Annex B of the Work Programme General Annexes. A number of non-EU/non-Associated Countries that are not automatically eligible for funding have made specific provisions for making funding available for their participants in Horizon Europe projects. See the information in the Horizon Europe Programme Guide. 3. Other Eligible Conditions Subject to restrictions for the protection of European communication networks. Due to the scope of this topic, relevant international organisations with headquarters in a Member State or Horizon Europe Associated Country are exceptionally eligible for funding. The following additional eligibility criteria apply: This topic requires the active involvement, as beneficiaries, of at least 2 authorities in charge of disaster risk or crisis communication[[Authorities in charge of disaster risk or crisis communication entail public bodies operating at the national level that hold legally defined responsibilities in the area of disaster risk management. This includes national civil protection authorities as well as other institutions that can demonstrate, through appropriate legal or administrative acts, a formal mandate to design, coordinate, or implement national disaster risk prevention, preparedness, response, or crisis communication measures.]] and 2 representatives of local or regional authorities in charge of disaster response from at least 3 different EU Member States or Associated Countries. For these participants, applicants must fill in the table “Information about security practitioners” in the application form with all the requested information, following the template provided in the submission IT tool. If projects use satellite-based earth observation, positioning, navigation and/or related timing data and services, beneficiaries must make use of Copernicus and/or Galileo/EGNOS (other data and services may additionally be used). described in Annex B of the Work Programme General Annexes. 4. Financial and operational capacity and exclusion described in Annex C of the Work Programme General Annexes. 5a. Evaluation and award: Award criteria, scoring and thresholds are described in Annex D of the Work Programme General Annexes. 5b. Evaluation and award: Submission and evaluation processes are described in Annex F of the Work Programme General Annexes and the Online Manual. 5c. Evaluation and award: Indicative timeline for evaluation and grant agreement described in Annex F of the Work Programme General Annexes. 6. Legal and financial set-up of the grants The granting authority may, up to 4 years after the end of the action, object to a transfer of ownership or to the exclusive licensing of results, as set out in the specific provision of Annex 5. Eligible costs will take the form of a lump sum as defined in the Decision of 7 July 2021 authorising the use of lump sum contributions under the Horizon Europe Programme – the Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (2021-2027) – and in actions under the Research and Training Programme of the European Atomic Energy Community (2021-2025) [[This decision is available on the Funding and Tenders Portal, in the reference documents section for Horizon Europe, under ‘Simplified costs decisions’ or through this link: https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/docs/2021-2027/horizon/guidance/ls-decision_he_en.pdf]]. described in Annex G of the Work Programme General Annexes. Specific conditions described in the [specific topic of the Work Programme] Some activities resulting from this topic may involve using classified background and/or producing of security sensitive results (EUCI and SEN). Please refer to the related provisions in section B Security — EU classified and sensitive information of the General Annexes. Application and evaluation forms and model grant agreement (MGA): Application form templates — the application form specific to this call is available in the Submission System Standard application form (HE RIA, IA) Evaluation form templates — will be used with the necessary adaptations Standard evaluation form (HE RIA, IA) HE Programme Guide Model Grant Agreements (MGA) Lump Sum MGA Call-specific instructions Detailed budget table (HE LS) Information on financial support to third parties (HE) Guidance: "Lump sums - what do I need to know?" Additional documents: HE Main Work Programme 2026-2027 – 1. General Introduction HE Main Work Programme 2026-2027 – 6. Civil Security for Society HE Main Work Programme 2026-2027 – 15. General Annexes HE Programme Guide HE Framework Programme 2021/695 HE Specific Programme Decision 2021/764 EU Financial Regulation 2024/2509 Decision authorising the use of lump sum contributions under the Horizon Europe Programme Rules for Legal Entity Validation, LEAR Appointment and Financial Capacity Assessment EU Grants AGA — Annotated Model Grant Agreement Funding & Tenders Portal Online Manual Funding & Tenders Portal Terms and Conditions Funding & Tenders Portal Privacy Statement